Delta Top Model

Delta Price = realized price (on-chain cost basis) minus average price (all-time average cap ÷ supply); Delta Top = 7 × Delta Price. Realized price comes from on-chain data (bitcoin-data.com, from July 2022), so this page's Delta Top series starts there.

Delta Price measures the on-chain cost basis premium over the long-run average; the 7× empirical multiple matched the magnitude of the 2017 and 2021 tops. Read it alongside Top Cap — the two bands together are more robust than either alone.