Cambio en la Oferta de Holders a Largo Plazo

This page differentiates LTH supply (a stock) into a flow: LTH Net Position Change = the day-by-day net increase or decrease of the long-term holder cohort's inventory, in BTC. Per the data provider bitcoin-data.com: positive values mean net accumulation (coins graduating into the cohort outnumber coins leaving), negative values mean net distribution (old coins moving out dominate). Slope changes that are nearly invisible on the stock chart become an obvious oscillation around the zero line here.

The stock chart is for scale and cycle-length trends; the flow chart is for timing turns. The moment LTH flips from accumulation to distribution (curve crossing from positive to negative) — or back — tends to be identifiable earlier than the corresponding top or bottom in the stock curve. Runs of same-signed readings over weeks and months matter far more than any single day: a distribution phase announces itself as sustained, deepening negative territory, not one deep red print.

Four regimes. Sustained and widening positives = accelerating accumulation (typical of mid-to-late bears and early bulls, as floating chips get locked away). Narrowing positives = accumulation momentum fading. A flip negative that persists = distribution underway (the signature of bull impulse phases and top zones, veterans handing inventory to newcomers). Deep negatives converging back toward zero = distribution exhaustion, often accompanying the completion of a cycle top or the end of a deep correction. Overlay LTH-SOPR to distinguish profit-taking distribution from panic exit.

Three. The graduation mechanism makes the positive side inherently laggy — today's cohort entries reflect purchases 155 days ago — while the negative side (old coins moving) is real-time, so the two sides carry asymmetric timing. Exchange cold-wallet housekeeping can 'reset' old coins en masse, printing one-day deep-negative pulses unrelated to genuine selling — check news and exchange flows first. And this site shows a rolling ~4-year window; for earlier cycles consult the provider's full history.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.