Previsione dell'Offerta

Bitcoin is one of the very few assets whose future supply can simply be calculated. The protocol dictates: one block roughly every 10 minutes, a fixed number of new coins per block, and that issuance halving every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) — starting at 50 BTC per block at genesis, cut to 25, 12.5, 6.25 and 3.125 through the 2012/2016/2020/2024 halvings. Total supply converges on a hard cap of 21 million. The chart shows three lines: historical supply (actual cumulative on-chain issuance), a deterministic forecast (extrapolated from the current height at 144 blocks/day with scheduled halvings), and the 21M cap reference.

Halvings give the supply curve its saturating S-shape: steep early (50 BTC per block through 2009-2012 issued half of all coins within four years), the slope halving every four years since, now nearly flat. Circulating supply currently stands around 20.05 million — more than 95% of the 21 million cap — while the remaining sliver under 5% will take over a century to mine. By widely published estimates, the final satoshi is expected to be mined around the year 2140, after which miner revenue depends entirely on transaction fees.

Three reasons. It is the mathematical foundation of the scarcity narrative — gold's annual supply responds to price (higher prices induce more mining), while Bitcoin's issuance is perfectly price-inelastic, halving on schedule regardless. It is the denominator of the inflation rate: annualized issuance now runs below 1% (about 0.8% after the 2024 halving, under gold's long-run extraction rate) and halves again every four years. And halvings anchor the cycle narrative: all three past bull markets peaked within 12-18 months after a halving — far too small a sample to call a law, but the marginal contraction of new supply remains unavoidable in any supply-demand analysis.

The forecast here is this site's deterministic extrapolation from protocol parameters: back-solve the current block height from the latest actual supply, then project at 144 blocks/day (the theoretical 10-minute pace) against the fixed halving schedule. Two known biases: real block production tends to run slightly faster than 10 minutes as hashrate grows, so actual halvings arrive a bit earlier than extrapolated; and more importantly, circulating is not available — several million coins are widely accepted as permanently lost to destroyed keys (including roughly a million attributed to Satoshi's early mining; exact figures are unknowable), so tradable supply sits well below the printed curve. The 21M cap is protocol consensus — changing it would require near-unanimous network agreement, making it Bitcoin's most immovable parameter.

Beyond network data, see the broader market via total crypto market cap and BTC liquidations.