半減期後の価格推移

Each halving day's close (2012-11-28, 2016-07-09, 2020-05-11, 2024-04-20) is indexed to 100, and the following ~4 years of daily prices are converted to relative returns, so all four cycles overlay on one axis. The Y axis is logarithmic.

Each of the first three halvings was followed by a cycle top 12-18 months later: roughly +9,000% (2012 cycle), +2,800% (2016) and +650% (2020) — diminishing returns each cycle.

Only four samples exist, and macro conditions (ETFs, rate cycles) differ each round; history is not guaranteed to rhyme. For research reference only, not investment advice.