HODL-волна 5+ лет

This page slices a single reading out of the full HODL-wave spectrum (see this site's hodl-waves-supply page for the thirteen-band view and methodology): the percentage of circulating bitcoin that has not moved on-chain for at least five years — the 5y-7y, 7y-10y, and >10y bands summed, computed in-house from the full-spectrum cache. Five years is a demanding bar: to enter this count, a coin must sit motionless through at least one complete bull-bear cycle. Coins bought at the 2021 top and never touched only began graduating into this band in 2026.

The 1+ year HODL wave (separate page here) is diluted by ordinary holders who bought last cycle and simply haven't sold yet. Filtering at five years leaves almost exclusively four populations: ideological holders, lost coins, estate and institutional deep-cold storage, and Satoshi-era dormant coins. That makes it the chain's best approximation of supply that will almost never return to market — changes in its level directly rewrite the denominator of genuinely tradeable supply.

Within this site's window the share climbed from 23.5% in July 2022 to a peak of 34.26% on 2025-12-20, now 33.4% — nearly ten percentage points in four years, meaning roughly another tenth of all circulating bitcoin slipped into five-year-plus dormancy. Mechanically this is mostly coins bought in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets riding time's conveyor belt across the five-year line, compounded by long-term holders' minimal spending. The recent easing off the peak deserves attention: this share can only fall two ways — old coins actually moving, or relative shifts in the denominator — and if the former persists, it is a rare behavioral turn among the longest-term holders.

This is a slow-variable page: a persistently rising share is structural evidence of supply-side tightening, and historically the growth of long-age bands slows or reverses in late-bull top zones as high prices coax old coins out. Two unfixable caveats: lost coins (estimated in the millions) sit permanently in the long bands, providing a rise-only floor beneath the reading — genuine voluntary holding is lower than the printed number; and exchange or custodial cold wallets that sit still long enough are counted too, despite their concentrated disposal rights. Source: bitcoin-data.com, rolling ~4-year window.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.