HODL-волны по реализованной капитализации

Realized Cap HODL Waves were introduced in 2020 by the pseudonymous analyst typerbole (fully derived in the July write-up "HODL Waves Part 2 & Realized Cap"; Glassnode's docs credit the attribution). One change: each age band is weighted not by coin count but by realized value — coins × price at last move. Ancient cheap coins shrink drastically in visual weight, and the chart shows how economically meaningful capital distributes across age cohorts.

In the original HODL Waves, millions of coins dormant for a decade permanently occupy a large area, flattening recent changes. Weighted by realized value, fresh capital reshapes the chart immediately. Typerbole's empirical rule: when coins younger than 6 months hold roughly 80%+ of realized cap, new buyers own the overwhelming share of economic weight — a signature that appeared at the 2013, 2017 and early-2021 cycle tops.

It inherits every Realized Cap caveat (lost coins, custody migrations, invisible intra-exchange turnover). Thresholds like 80% are fitted to past cycles and need not repeat as market structure evolves. And it shares its engine with the RHODL Ratio — RHODL is a ratio built on this very framework — so the two do not constitute independent confirmation; don't count the same logic twice.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.