Tiempo de Duplicación del Precio

This is an in-house cycle metric with a fully transparent algorithm: for each day, take the closing price P and search backward for the most recent day when price was at or below P/2; the gap in days is that day's reading. Plainly: how far back does half-price live? Small readings mean price doubled quickly — vigorous growth, and possibly overheating; large readings mean the last doubling is ancient history — growth has stalled. To be emphatic: this is this site's own basic methodology computed from Bitcoin's full daily history, not a replica of any third-party composite index, and it has no famous proposer to cite.

On the log axis the curve's history is easy to parse. Bull-market advances crush the reading: an extreme 2-day doubling printed in September 2010 (a paper-thin early market), the 2021 advance bottomed at 23 days, and the March 2024 run to new highs read 111 days — each cycle's fastest doubling slower than the last, consistent with Bitcoin's long-term volatility decay as it grew. Bears and stagnations grind the reading upward: the all-time high of 1,080 days printed in October 2023 (price then still far from double its half-price date), and the current reading of 989 days climbs by one daily — meaning price has failed to sustain a doubling over any lookback for nearly three years.

Note a mechanical property: whenever price fails to break new ground against every historical P/2 level, the reading rises linearly by one per day — the slope carries no information; the level and the turning points do. A collapse from a high reading means price just cleared a key multiple of some deep-drawdown level — historically a companion signal of trend change. A sustained climb through hundreds of days (as now) sketches a market that has gone years without an effective doubling. Read it beside the power-law oscillator (separate page here, currently also deep in its discount zone): two structurally different models presently agree on the cycle position.

Three. The metric is asymmetric: it measures time since half-price only and is insensitive to crash speed — after a sharp sell-off the reading can plunge simply because the base shifted down, and that low print is not an overheat signal; always read jointly with price direction. Pre-2013 data reflects an extremely thin market, so early extremes are not comparable. And as Bitcoin's volatility decays across cycles, the reading's equilibrium level ratchets upward systematically — fixed thresholds fail across cycles; compare like cycle-phase with like.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.