Ценовой осциллятор

The power-law thesis holds that Bitcoin's long-term price growth traces an approximately straight line in log-log space: log(price) is linear in log(days since the genesis block) — growth follows a power function of time, not an exponential. The oscillator is the detrended reading of that model: divide each day's price by the fitted power-law line to get a deviation ratio, expressed as a series swinging around a midline. This page shows both lines: the price-to-model ratio (1 = midline; below 1 means price under the power-law trend) and the oscillator (a normalized form of the ratio, centered at 0).

The power-law observation was first noted by physicist Giovanni Santostasi on Reddit in 2018; Harold Christopher Burger systematized it in his September 2019 Medium article on Bitcoin's long-term power-law corridor of growth, and introduced the oscillator form in a follow-up piece. Important caveat: this page's data comes from bitcoin-data.com's power-law-oscillator endpoint — that provider's own fit. Power-law fits are sensitive to the sample window, different implementations place the midline differently, and the provider does not document its exact fitting parameters or normalization. This site displays the raw values and does not cross-compare against other implementations.

Within this site's window (from July 2022), the ratio bottomed at 0.45 on 2022-11-21 — the post-FTX cycle low, price at just 45% of the power-law midline — and peaked at 1.42 on 2024-12-16, in the euphoria after the first break above $100K. It currently sits near 0.52 with the oscillator around −0.29: deep in the window's discount zone, close to late-2022 levels. Within this model's framework, historical cycle bottoms cluster well below a ratio of 1 and tops well above it — but the window covers only one full cycle, so the sample is thin.

Know this: the power-law model itself is substantively contested in quantitative circles. Critics argue it is sensitive to the fitting window and that a pure function of time lacks any economic mechanism; proponents answer with goodness-of-fit across more than a decade of data. The debate remains open and public. Treat this oscillator as one long-cycle valuation coordinate among several — cross-check against structurally different models like MVRV and the rainbow chart — never as a standalone trade trigger. And the further the model is extrapolated, the faster its reliability decays.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.