NVTレシオ

NVT (Network Value to Transactions) was introduced and popularized by Willy Woo in 2017, with early contributions from Coin Metrics and Chris Burniske: market cap ÷ daily on-chain transfer volume in USD. The P/E analogy: market cap is the price; value actually moving across the network is its utility, or earnings. High NVT means the valuation is rich relative to real on-chain usage; low NVT, cheap.

The original NVT lagged badly — Dmitry Kalichkin's 2018 "Rethinking NVT Ratio" showed it peaked months after a bubble burst, "neither predictive nor descriptive." His fix: smooth only the volatile denominator with a 90-day moving average while leaving market cap raw, yielding the far more responsive NVT Signal. Woo called it possibly the first trading indicator built from blockchain data, citing early empirical bands of 150 (overbought) and 45 (oversold).

Two structural shifts have eroded the denominator. A growing share of bitcoin transfer activity happens inside exchanges, on Lightning, and across custodial ledgers — on-chain volume no longer captures economic activity completely. And providers filter non-economic transfers (change outputs etc.) differently, so absolute readings vary by data source. Woo himself acknowledged fixed thresholds no longer hold, prompting variants like Charles Edwards' Dynamic Range NVT, which replaces static bands with rolling mean ± standard deviation.

Treat it as a long-cycle relative-valuation gauge: compare against its own historical range, not fixed numbers. Persistently high readings with stalling price warn of valuation overreach; a return to the historical low zone means valuation has converged toward on-chain usage. In the ETF era, don't rely on it alone for timing.

Beyond on-chain P&L, gauge market stress with live liquidations and the Fear & Greed Index.