短期保有者の取得価格

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price = the realized cap of coins moved within the last 155 days ÷ that cohort's supply — the weighted average cost of money that entered (or churned) within roughly the past five months. The 155-day boundary follows Glassnode's statistical finding that UTXO spend probability drops sharply past that age. This cohort is the market's most reactive: quick to take profit, quick to panic — making its collective cost line one of the most-watched psychological levels.

The behavioral logic is direct. When a bull-market pullback touches the STH cost line, recent buyers sit at break-even — reluctant to sell at a loss and inclined to add, so sell pressure dries up and support forms. When a bear-market rally reaches the same line, trapped recent buyers exit the moment they're made whole, and the line turns into resistance. This is the same phenomenon as STH-MVRV's behavior around 1, expressed in price space: STH-MVRV = spot ÷ this line, so an MVRV cross of 1 is exactly a price cross of this line.

Verifiable on public charts: through the 2021 and 2023-2024 uptrends, repeated pullbacks found support near the STH cost line before resuming; decisive breaks below it that failed to reclaim tended to mark medium-term structural weakening and deeper corrections. On-chain analysts widely use spot's position relative to this line as a quick bull/bear structure test. It is insensitive to cycle tops and bottoms — that's LTH territory — its strength is short-to-medium-term structure.

Three. Short-term coins churn fast, so the line itself chases price — in fast markets it gets dragged along, making the support/resistance level dynamic, not a static level to place orders at. In ranging markets price crosses it repeatedly — high signal frequency, high noise; confirm with STH-SOPR and funding rates. And provider definitions differ (entity adjustment, smoothing), so with this chart's data from bitcoin-data.com, compare trends across sites rather than levels.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.