10년+ HODL 웨이브

The oldest band of the HODL-wave spectrum: the share of circulating bitcoin unmoved for ten years or more. It is the most extreme time-filter the chain offers — a coin entering this band today last moved before mid-2016, around the second halving. The page reads the >10y band directly from the full-spectrum cache; source: bitcoin-data.com.

The five-year band still contains a fair share of investors who simply hold well; the ten-year band is dominated by irreversible states: millions of coins permanently lost (early wallet losses, destroyed keys — published estimates of total lost coins cluster around 3-4 million, though none can be verified precisely), Satoshi-era miner coins never touched, and a small remainder of genuine decade-plus holders. This band therefore carries the least behavioral signal of any age cohort — it is closer to a sedimentary layer that only accretes. But precisely for that reason, any stirring here is deafening: large movements of decade-old coins (even mere wallet migrations) have always been headline events for on-chain sleuths.

Within this site's window the share climbed steadily from 12.9% in July 2022 to a peak of 18.85% in December 2025, now 17.8%. The main conveyor belt: coins bought or mined in 2013-2015 and untouched since, crossing the ten-year line on schedule. The recent one-point retreat merits a magnifying glass: it blends denominator effects with possibly genuine ancient-coin movement — cross-checking against public on-chain monitoring (large ancient-address awakenings are invariably reported) beats reading the curve alone.

Treat this page as Bitcoin's geological stratum: it prices a hard discount into effective circulating supply — at roughly 18%, about 3.6 million of the nominal 20-million-plus circulating coins will in all likelihood not participate in price discovery for the foreseeable future. That systematically biases every metric using circulating supply as a denominator (true market cap, true velocity). It offers almost nothing for short-term trading; the one alarm worth setting is for the rare event: a sudden, meaningful drop in this share means ancient coins waking — historically such episodes moved market sentiment first and asked questions later, even when they proved to be wallet housekeeping.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.