Bitcoin vs Federal Funds Rate

The green line is the effective Federal Funds Rate (monthly); orange is BTC price (log axis). The 2020 cut to zero coincided with the liquidity bull run, the aggressive 2022 hikes with a deep bear, and the cutting cycle since 2024 with recovery.

Rates set the risk-free return and global liquidity conditions: low rates push capital into risk assets including crypto, while rapid hikes drain liquidity. BTC, a high-beta risk asset, is sensitive to the rate cycle.

Correlation is not causation — rates are only one macro variable alongside ETF flows and halving supply dynamics. Not investment advice.