Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple, created by David Puell, takes an unusual angle: instead of holders, it watches miners — the market's structural sellers. Formula: USD value of daily new BTC issuance ÷ its 365-day moving average. Mining costs are fiat-denominated, making coin sales a necessity, so issuance value relative to its yearly norm directly gauges miner sell pressure and industry profitability.

Readings far above 1 (historically 4+): miner revenue runs at multiples of the yearly average, the whole industry is wildly profitable, sell pressure peaks — the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops all featured elevated readings (early cycles spiked to 6–10). Readings below roughly 0.5: revenue far below the yearly norm, high-cost rigs shut down, the industry purges — 2015, late 2018, March 2020 and late 2022 all printed in this band, each a bottom zone in hindsight. Thresholds per Glassnode and Bitcoin Magazine Pro's historical documentation.

At every halving the block subsidy is cut 50% overnight, so daily issuance value halves instantly — while the denominator still carries a full year of pre-halving data. The result is a mechanical, price-independent drop in the multiple after each halving that washes out over the following ~12 months. Low readings after the April 2024 halving must be discounted for this artifact.

As fee revenue's share of miner income fluctuates and miners diversify financing (equity raises and hashrate-collateralized loans replacing direct coin sales), the issuance-value-equals-sell-pressure assumption weakens. It still deserves a seat in cycle analysis, but weight it below holder-behavior metrics like the MVRV family and NUPL.

Beyond network data, see the broader market via total crypto market cap and BTC liquidations.