1+ Year HODL Wave

The 1+ Year HODL Wave is the share of Bitcoin's total supply that has not moved for at least one year. It is the long-term summary slice of the full HODL Waves spectrum (this site has separate pages for HODL Waves supply distribution and Realized Cap HODL Waves): the seven age bands from 1y-2y up to 10y+ are simply summed, producing a ratio between 0 and 1 — a reading of 0.62 on this chart's axis means 62% of supply has sat still for a year or more. The full spectrum shows the fine structure of coin ages; this line answers one question: how much of the market is being held.

HODL Waves were introduced by Unchained Capital co-founder Dhruv Bansal in April 2018 in 'Bitcoin Data Science (Pt. 1): HODL Waves', built on a native property of UTXOs: every bitcoin carries a timestamp of its last move. The one-year slice is the most quoted cut of the spectrum because a year spans most speculative cycles — coins that survive a full year unmoved are far more likely deliberate holdings than trading inventory. Among descendants, the RHODL Ratio (see its page here) layers realized-cap weighting onto the same idea.

The ratio tends to move opposite to price. Through bears and accumulation phases, coins bought earlier keep maturing across the one-year line month after month and the ratio grinds higher — supply settles from trading float into holdings. Late in bulls, dormant coins wake up to sell into strength, their age resets to zero, and the ratio rolls over — each cycle top has printed near a local inflection of this curve. The data provider bitcoin-data.com notes that historical peaks have clustered above the 0.65-0.70 area, typically deep in bear markets at maximum holding reluctance (within this site's window, readings above 0.7 appeared in late 2023).

Two systematic biases. First, permanently lost coins — forgotten keys, unclaimed early mining rewards — never move again and permanently inflate the ratio: part of the denominator is dead supply merely impersonating HODLers. Second, exchange cold wallets that sit untouched also count, even though beneficial ownership of those coins may churn daily off-chain. Absolute levels therefore carry limited meaning; direction and inflection points are the signal. This site displays a rolling ~4-year window — for earlier cycles consult the provider's full-history charts.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.