RHODL Ratio

Created by analyst Philip Swift, the Realized HODL Ratio compares the realized value of two age cohorts: coins moved within the last week versus coins last moved 1–2 years ago. A high ratio means the market is dominated by freshly-moved speculative money; a low ratio means supply sits quietly with long-term holders.

Each coin is valued at the price of its last on-chain move (its "realized" value). The realized cap of the 1-week band is divided by that of the 1–2-year band, then normalized for supply growth so readings are comparable across cycles.

At cycle tops, old coins change hands at high prices en masse: the 1-week band's realized cap balloons while the 1–2-year band thins out, sending RHODL sharply higher. The 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks all printed inside the indicator's red upper zone.

Red upper zone: speculative turnover is extreme — historically a cycle-top signal. Green lower zone: supply concentrated with long-term holders — historically bear-market accumulation. The middle range carries little signal; use RHODL alongside MVRV-Z and Pi Cycle for confluence rather than in isolation.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.