Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed

CVDD — Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed — was created by analyst Willy Woo in 2018 and published in April 2019 alongside David Puell's research piece "Experiments on Cumulative Destruction." The motivation: Coin Days Destroyed (CDD, covered on its own page here) records the daily flow of old coins changing hands; Woo wanted to accumulate that flow into an ever-rising valuation floor — in his own words, a bottom model tracking the age of coins moving to new buyers, on the idea that old coins transferring to fresh hands raises the market's perceived floor value.

Three steps: multiply each day's CDD by that day's price to get dollar-denominated value-days destroyed (VDD); cumulatively sum from genesis; then divide by the market's age in days and by a calibration constant of 6 million. Woo and Puell openly note that the 6 million figure is an empirical fit unconnected to any Bitcoin fundamental — the source of the model's 'experimental' label. The result is a smooth, USD-denominated curve that almost never declines.

Branches of the same tree, each with a job: CDD is the daily flow (did old coins move?); the VDD Multiple asks whether that flow's dollar value runs hot or cold versus the trailing year (a top-leaning signal); CVDD accumulates and normalizes the full history into a floor line in price space (a bottom-leaning signal). In the sibling transferred-price family, Terminal Price (transferred price × 21) marks tops and Balanced Price (realized minus transferred price) marks bottoms. What sets this page apart: CVDD is a line directly comparable to spot price, not an oscillator.

Verifiable on public charts: at cycle bottoms such as 2015 and late 2018, spot probed down to the CVDD line — earning it the nickname of the ever-rising floor, since it keeps climbing slowly even through bears, offering a bottom reference that ratchets up with time (Woo publicly noted CVDD at about $15.4K in June 2022; the subsequent cycle low held above it). The limits are equally clear: the 6-million constant is pure historical fitting, and Woo himself states such models carry no guarantee for future cycles. And when price trades far above the line, its relevance decays with distance. Treat it as one deep-bear floor coordinate — never as a price target that must be reached.

Alongside holder behavior, watch short-term leverage via BTC liquidations and funding rates.