Long Term Holder MVRV

Glassnode's analysis of historical UTXO spend probabilities found that once a coin sits dormant for roughly 155 days, its odds of being spent drop sharply. That threshold splits supply into Long-Term Holders (LTH, >155 days) and Short-Term Holders (STH). LTH-MVRV computes MVRV for the long-term cohort only — current price as a multiple of the veterans' average cost basis.

Long-term holders are the lowest-cost, most experienced, most behaviorally consistent cohort: they accumulate through bear-market bottoms and distribute into late bull markets. LTH-MVRV isolates their profit state. Extreme highs mean veteran paper profits — and distribution incentive — are maximal; every major cycle top has coincided with elevated LTH-MVRV. Readings near or below 1 mean even the lowest-cost cohort is underwater, historically marking capitulation bottoms.

Three notes. LTH cost basis is very low, so LTH-MVRV runs far higher in absolute terms than standard MVRV — their thresholds are not interchangeable. Glassnode's version is entity-adjusted (cohort assignment by an entity's volume-weighted purchase age, not per-UTXO), and definitions differ across data providers, so cross-site numbers won't match exactly. And it measures incentive, not action — large veteran profits don't force selling; pair it with LTH-SOPR, which shows the profit actually realized when they do sell.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.