Short Term Holder MVRV

STH-MVRV covers only coins that moved within the last 155 days: current price ÷ the short-term cohort's average cost basis (the STH realized price). These are recent entrants and active traders — the most reactive cohort, quick to take profit and quick to panic — which makes their cost line a meaningful psychological level.

STH-MVRV at 1 means price exactly equals the average entry of money that arrived in the past ~5 months. In bull markets, pullbacks toward this line have often found support (recent buyers defend break-even and add on dips). A decisive break below it that fails to recover means recent buyers are collectively underwater and market structure is weakening — historically STH-MVRV crosses of the 1-line have signaled trend shifts earlier than the slower full-supply MVRV.

Use it for short-to-medium-term structure: price versus recent capital's cost basis, and locating bull-market pullback support. Don't use it for cycle tops and bottoms — stripping out long-term supply removes exactly that information. Also note the STH realized price itself chases spot price as young coins churn, so in fast markets the line gets dragged along; the signal is frequent but noisy. Pair with STH-SOPR and funding rates for short-horizon confirmation.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.