Balanced Price

Balanced Price was proposed by David Puell: Realized Price minus Transferred Price. Realized Price is the average cost basis of all holders; Transferred Price is the CDD-weighted historical turnover price — effectively the premium the market pays for time held. Subtracting one from the other strips out that time value, leaving a bare-bones cost line Puell framed as a fair-value model.

Balanced Price mirrors Terminal Price — one for bottoms, the other for tops. Verifiable on public charts: the January 2015 and December 2018 bear-market lows both probed the Balanced Price line, briefly trading through it; the March 2020 liquidity-crisis low approached it as well. Reaching this line means the market has squeezed out the entire time-held premium — historically a full-detox marker.

The late-2022 bear low (~$15.5K) stayed clearly above the then-current Balanced Price — like every historically fitted model, it carries no guarantee of being reached each cycle. The construction also leans on two separate accounting frameworks (Realized Cap and CDD), and implementations vary across data providers. Valuable as a deep-bear "how low could it go" coordinate; unreliable as a bottom-buying trigger.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.