Short Term Holder SOPR

STH-SOPR covers only spent outputs younger than 155 days, capturing the realized P&L of recent entrants and active traders. Their cost basis sits near spot, so STH-SOPR hugs the 1-line — it is the highest-frequency, most short-term-sensitive slice of SOPR, and most of aggregate SOPR's behavior around 1 is driven by this cohort.

In bull structure, STH-SOPR dips to 1 and holds: short-term profit-takers exit, but new buyers refuse to sell at a loss, absorbing the pullback. A sustained break below 1 means recent buyers are stopping out in volume — direct evidence of weakening structure. In bear rallies, STH-SOPR tagging 1 and reversing means trapped buyers exit at break-even, capping the bounce.

It is a short-horizon confirmation tool, not a cycle gauge. Daily prints are noisy — use a 7-day average. The moved-equals-sold assumption bites harder here, since young supply includes more exchange hot-wallet and pass-through churn, making it "dirtier" than LTH-SOPR. Best used in a short-term dashboard alongside STH-MVRV (newcomers' paper P&L) and funding rates.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.