Terminal Price

Terminal Price was created by James Check (Checkmate), lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode. Construction has two steps: first compute the Transferred Price — the time-weighted average transaction price implied by cumulative coin days destroyed, i.e., every coin's historical turnover price weighted by how long it was actually held; then multiply by a factor of 21.

Verifiable on public charts: the December 2017 cycle top tagged the Terminal Price line; the first 2021 peak in April (~$64K) essentially reached it as well, but the final November 2021 high ($69K) fell short. The line is not a ceiling that every cycle must touch — it marks the magnitude that past tops have reached.

The factor 21 is an empirical fit (its echo of the 21 million supply cap is a design flourish, not math). The construction inflates a long-term cost basis to historical-top scale. The shared weakness of all such cost-basis-times-constant models (Top Cap and Delta Top included): the multiplier is fitted to past cycles and need not repeat as market structure evolves. Use it as a reference band, never a precise price target.

Beyond cycle positioning, gauge short-term sentiment with market-wide liquidations and BTC liquidation data.